🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.