🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."